El Niño, Prepping, and a Beautiful Autumn
We planted these hornbeams in our front garden about 8 years ago, because I loved this UK native tree’s bright autumn colours and they tend to grow straight up rather than out so I could fit a little hornbeam wood in my front garden. But I feared for their lives in the heat and drought of this past summer. I lost at least one of my young silver birch trees in the back garden and I saw other trees in the village that were clearly struggling. Here we are at the end of October, though, and they look just as I hoped they would - on fire with eye-catching yellows and oranges. And isn’t it amazing how quickly the green returned once we got a bit of rain - proof of the resilience of nature, which has been through many climactic changes in Earth’s long history!
But the news continues to be worrying. Some good news - the far right defeated in Brazil and Serbia, an Olympic bid for the North of England, UK renewable electricity generation reaching a new record share of 55.8 percent of generation, according to the government’s June 2026 Energy Trends Report. But also some horrifying news, especially from Palestine, Ukraine and Yemen. And lots of confusing news. Whose ally is the US now? How at risk are our pipelines and national grid? Should we be prepping? And how is this Super El Niño thing going to pan out?
On that last question I have some information. Last month I attended a seminar on the effects of the El Niño led by Professors Hayley Fowler and Paul Behrens and learned a lot.
Tree Planting in a Warming World
Why tree planting presents special challenges in a warming climate, and what we can do about it.
The Visible Catastrophe
Something happened yesterday morning that deserves more attention than it will probably get. In the pre-market hours in New York, before any public announcement had been made, someone placed two enormous bets on the financial markets. One — worth $1.5 billion — wagered that stock prices would rise. The other — $192 million — wagered that oil prices would fall. Fifteen minutes later, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States had been holding "very good and productive conversations" with Iran, and that planned military strikes would be paused for five days.
The markets moved exactly as those bets had predicted. The oil position alone generated an estimated $100 million in profit within twenty minutes. The equity gains pushed the total considerably higher.
This is the moment to stop and ask ourselves a question: are we simply choosing not to see what is directly in front of us?
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